Posted by: matthew milligan | April 12, 2012

25 years of kentucky derby – analysis

Some quick and dirty stats on the past 25 years of the Kentucky Derby.

Please see the prior post for results from all 25 races.


Winners
Average Odds/Payout: 13.47/$28.94
Median Odds/Payout: 8.40/$18.80
Favorites
Winners: 5
Percent Winners: 20%
Net betting Favorite every year: ($5.80)
Average Finish: 5.68
Average Odds/Payout: 3.33/$1.77
Median Odds/Payout: 3.10/$0.00
Winning Favorites
Average Odds/Payout: 3.42/$8.84
Median Odds/Payout: 3.40/$8.80
Winning Non-Favorites
Average Odds/Payout: 15.99/$33.97
Median Odds/Payout: 10.65/$23.30
Exotics
Average $2 Exacta: $764.39
Median $2 Exacta: $152.40
Average $2 Trifecta: $13,404.00
Median $2 Trifecta: $2,344.40
Average $ Superfecta: $201,494.89
Median $2 Superfecta: $53,109.40
Trifecta available 18 years
Superfecta available 16 years
Biggest Longshot
Wins: 0
ITM: 2
Post Position
Average Winning Post: 9.72
Median Wining Post: 8.00
Average Number of Posts: 17.68
Median Number of Posts: 18.00
Post Wins Posts Win %
1 0 25 0.0%
2 0 25 0.0%
3 2 25 8.0%
4 1 25 4.0%
5 4 25 16.0%
6 1 25 4.0%
7 1 25 4.0%
8 4 25 16.0%
9 0 25 0.0%
10 3 25 12.0%
11 1 25 4.0%
12 0 25 0.0%
13 1 25 4.0%
14 0 24 0.0%
15 2 23 8.7%
16 4 20 20.0%
17 0 18 0.0%
18 0 15 0.0%
19 0 12 0.0%
20 1 5 20.0%

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Posted by: matthew milligan | April 12, 2012

25 years of kentucky derby results

Please see my subsequent post for a quick analysis of these 25 Kentucky Derby results.


2011
Win 16 – Animal Kingdom $43.80 $19.60 $13.00
Place 19 – Nehro $8.80 $6.40
Show 13 – Mucho Macho Man $7.00
$2 Exacta: $329.80
$2 Trifecta: $3,952.40
$2 Superfecta: $48,126.00
Favorite: Dialed In
Favorite Odds: 5.20
Finish: 8th
Biggest Longshot: Decisive Moment
Odds: 39.30
Finish: 14th
Winning Post: 16
# Posts: 19
2010
Win 4 – Super Saver $18.00 $8.80 $6.00
Place 2 – Ice Box $11.20 $8.00
Show 10 – Paddy O’Prado $7.40
$2 Exacta: $152.40
$2 Trifecta: $2,337.40
$2 Superfecta: $202,569.20
Favorite: Lookin At Lucky
Favorite Odds: 6.30
Finish: 6th
Biggest Longshot: Discreetly Mine
Odds: 31.60
Finish: 13th
Winning Post: 4
# Posts: 20
2009
Win 8 – Mine That Bird $103.20 $54.00 $25.80
Place 16 – Pioneer Of The Nile $8.40 $6.40
Show 2 – Musket Man $12.00
$2 Exacta: $2,074.80
$2 Trifecta: $41,500.60
$2 Superfecta: $557,006.40
Favorite: Friesan Fire
Favorite Odds: 3.80
Finish: 18th
Biggest Longshot: Atomic Rain
Odds: 55.20
Finish: 16th
Winning Post: 8
# Posts: 19
2008
Win 20 – Big Brown $6.80 $5.00 $4.80
Place 5 – Eight Belles $10.60 $6.40
Show 16 – Denis Of Cork $11.60
$2 Exacta: $141.60
$2 Trifecta: $3,445.60
$2 Superfecta: $58,737.80
Favorite: Big Brown
Favorite Odds: 2.40
Finish: 1st
Biggest Longshot: Z Humor
Odds: 63.60
Finish: 14th
Winning Post: 20
# Posts: 20
2007
Win 7 – Street Sense $11.80 $6.40 $4.60
Place 8 – Hard Spun $9.80 $7.00
Show 2 – Curlin $5.60
$2 Exacta: $101.80
$2 Trifecta: $440.00
$2 Superfecta: $58,092.80
Favorite: Street Sense
Favorite Odds: 4.90
Finish: 1st
Biggest Longshot: Sedgefield
Odds: 58.60
Finish: 5th
Winning Post: 7
# Posts: 20
2006
Win 8 – Barbaro $14.20 $8.00 $6.00
Place 13 – Bluegrass Cat $28.40 $15.40
Show 2 – Steppenwolfer $7.80
$2 Exacta: $587.00
$2 Trifecta: $11,418.40
$2 Superfecta: $169,720.80  (DH: Jazil)
$2 Superfecta: $119,678.00  (DH: Brother Derek)
Favorite: Sweetnorthernsaint
Favorite Odds: 5.50
Finish: 7th
Biggest Longshot: Deputy Glitters
Odds: 60.60
Finish: 8th
Winning Post: 8
# Posts: 20
2005
Win 10 – Giacomo $102.60 $45.80 $19.80
Place 18 – Closing Argument $70.00 $24.80
Show 12 – Afleet Alex $4.60
$2 Exacta: $9,814.80
$2 Trifecta: $133,134.80
$2 Superfecta: $1,728,507.00
Favorite: Bellamy Road
Favorite Odds: 2.60
Finish: 7th
Biggest Longshot: Closing Argument
Odds: 71.60
Finish: 2nd
Winning Post: 10
# Posts: 20
2004
Win 15 – Smarty Jones $10.20 $6.20 $4.80
Place 3 – Lion Heart $8.20 $5.80
Show 10 – Imperialism $6.20
$2 Exacta: $65.20
$2 Trifecta: $987.60
$2 Superfecta: $41,380.20
Favorite: Smarty Jones
Favorite Odds: 4.10
Finish: 1st
Biggest Longshot: Song Of The Sword
Odds: 55.90
Finish: 11th
Winning Post: 13
# Posts: 18
2003
Win 6 – Funny Cide $27.60 $12.40 $8.20
Place 12 – Empire Maker $5.80 $4.40
Show 5 – Peace Rules $6.00
$2 Exacta: $97.00
$2 Trifecta: $664.80
$2 Superfecta: $5,591.60
Favorite: Empire Maker
Favorite Odds: 2.50
Finish: 2nd
Biggest Longshot: Lone Star Sky
Odds: 52.10
Finish: 15th
Winning Post: 5
# Posts: 16
2002
Win 5 – War Emblem $43.00 $22.80 $13.60
Place 13 – Proud Citizen $24.60 $13.40
Show 3 – Perfect Drift $6.40
$2 Exacta: $1,300.80
$2 Trifecta: $18,373.20
$2 Superfecta: $183,529.00
Favorite: Harlan’s Holiday
Favorite Odds: 6.00
Finish: 7th
Biggest Longshot: It’sallinthechase
Odds: 94.50
Finish: 16th
Winning Post: 5
# Posts: 18
2001
Win 16 – Monarchos $23.00 $11.80 $8.80
Place 13 – Invisible Ink $46.60 $21.20
Show 8 – Congaree $7.20
$2 Exacta: $1,229.00
$2 Trifecta: $12,238.40
$2 Superfecta: $125,973.80
Favorite: Point Given
Favorite Odds: 1.80
Finish: 5th
Biggest Longshot: Startac
Odds: 102.40
Finish: 10th
Winning Post: 16
# Posts: 17
2000
Win 12 – Fusaichi Pegasus $6.60 $5.60 $4.00
Place 5 – Aptitude $9.80 $5.80
Show 1c – Impeachment $4.00
$2 Exacta: $66.00
$2 Trifecta: $435.00
$2 Superfecta: $3,270.80
Favorite: Fusaichi Pegasus
Favorite Odds: 2.30
Finish: 1st
Biggest Longshot: Exchange Rate
Odds: 59.20
Finish: 12th
Winning Post: 15
# Posts: 19
1999
Win 11 – Charismatic $64.60 $27.80 $14.40
Place 13 – Menifee $8.40 $5.80
Show 8 – Cat Thief $5.80
$2 Exacta: $727.80
$2 Trifecta: $5,866.20
$2 Superfecta: $48,031.00
Favorite: Excellent Meeting/General Challenge (coupled)
Favorite Odds: 4.80
Finish: 5th/11th
Biggest Longshot: Answer Lively
Odds: 37.00
Finish: 10th
Winning Post: 16
# Posts: 19
1998
Win 2 – Real Quiet $18.80 $8.80 $5.80
Place 12 – Victory Gallop $13.00 $7.60
Show 7 – Indian Charlie $4.20
$2 Exacta: $291.80
$2 Trifecta: $1,221.00
$2 Superfecta: $6,014.80
Favorite: Indian Charlie
Favorite Odds: 2.70
Finish: 3rd
Biggest Longshot: Nationalore
Odds: 109.60
Finish: 9th
Winning Post: 3
# Posts: 15
1997
Win 6 – Silver Charm $10.00 $4.80 $4.20
Place 5 – Captain Bodgit $4.80 $3.80
Show 12 – Free House $5.80
$2 Exacta: $31.00
$2 Trifecta: $205.40
$2 Superfecta: $700.00
Favorite: Captain Bodgit
Favorite Odds: 3.10
Finish: 2nd
Biggest Longshot: Crimson Classic
Odds: 80.10
Finish: 11th
Winning Post: 5
# Posts: 13
1996
Win 4 – Grindstone* $13.80 $6.00 $4.00
Place 3 – Cavonnier $6.20 $4.40
Show 8 – Prince Of Thieves $4.60
* coupled with Editor’s Note
$2 Exacta: $61.80
$2 Trifecta: $600.60
$2 Superfecta: $11,688.40
Favorite: Unbridled’s Song
Favorite Odds: 3.50
Finish: 5th
Biggest Longshot: Halo Sunshine
Odds: 28.90
Finish: 4th
Winning Post: 15
# Posts: 19
1995
Win 11 – Thunder Gulch $51.00 $24.20 $12.20
Place 10 – Tejano Run $10.20 $6.80
Show 2b – Timber Country $3.80
$2 Exacta: $480.00
$2 Trifecta: $2,099.20
Favorite: Timber Country/Serena’s Song (coupled)
Favorite Odds: 3.40
Finish: 3rd/16th
Biggest Longshot: Dazzling Falls
Odds: 27.60
Finish: 13th
Winning Post: 16
# Posts: 19
1994
Win 6 – Go For Gin $20.20 $8.40 $5.80
Place 5 – Strodes Creek $7.80 $6.00
Show 10 – Blumin Affair $8.00
$2 Exacta: $184.80
$2 Trifecta: $2,351.40
Favorite: Holy Bull
Favorite Odds: 2.20
Finish: 12th
Biggest Longshot: Powis Castle
Odds: 20.30
Finish: 8th
Winning Post: 8
# Posts: 14
1993
Win 6 – Sea Hero $27.80 $12.80 $8.00
Place 5 – Prairie Bayou $7.20 $4.80
Show 16 – Wild Gale $4.20
$2 Exacta: $190.60
Favorite: Prairie Bayou
Favorite Odds: 4.40
Finish: 2nd
Biggest Longshot: Dixieland Heat
Odds: 20.80
Finish: 12th
Winning Post: 6
# Posts: 19
1992
Win 7 – Lil E. Tee $35.60 $12.20 $7.60
Place 3 – Casual Lies $22.20 $11.60
Show 1a – Dance Floor $12.60
$2 Exacta: $854.40
Favorite: Arazi
Favorite Odds: 0.90
Finish: 8th
Biggest Longshot: Dance Floor/Al Sabin (coupled)
Odds: 33.30
Finish: 3rd/6th
Winning Post: 10
# Posts: 18
1991
Win 4 – Strike The Gold $11.60 $6.20 $5.40
Place 10 – Best Pal $6.40 $5.40
Show 7 – Mane Minister $25.60
$2 Exacta: $73.40
Favorite: Hansel
Favorite Odds: 2.50
Finish: 10th
Biggest Longshot: Happy Jazz Band
Odds: 107.80
Finish: 11th
Winning Post: 5
# Posts: 16
1990
Win 7 – Unbridled $23.60 $7.80 $5.80
Place 11 – Summer Squall $3.80 $3.80
Show 8 – Pleasant Tap $12.00
$2 Exacta: $65.80
Favorite: Mister Frisky
Favorite Odds: 1.90
Finish: 8th
Biggest Longshot: Dr. Bobby A.
Odds: 99.30
Finish: 12th
Winning Post: 8
# Posts: 15
1989
Win 10 – Sunday Silence $8.20 $3.00 $3.60
Place 2b – Easy Goer $2.60 $3.40
Show 2 – Awe Inspiring $3.40
$2 Exacta: $15.20
Favorite: Easy Goer/Awe Inspiring (coupled)
Favorite Odds: 0.80
Finish: 2nd/3rd
Biggest Longshot: Flying Continental
Odds: 84.30
Finish: 12th
Winning Post: 10
# Posts: 15
1988
Win 8 – Winning Colors $8.80 $5.20 $4.60
Place 1a – Forty Niner $5.20 $4.60
Show 3 – Risen Star $5.40
$2 Exacta: $63.40
Favorite: Winning Colors/Private Terms (uncoupled co-favorites)
Favorite Odds: 3.40
Finish: 1st/9th
Biggest Longshot: Jim’s Orbit
Odds: 64.60
Finish: 10th
Winning Post: 11
# Posts: 17
1987
Win 4 – Alysheba $18.80 $8.00 $6.20
Place 9 – Bet Twice $10.00 $7.20
Show 14f – Avies Copy $6.80
$2 Exacta: $109.60
Favorite: Demons Begone
Favorite Odds: 2.20
Finish: 17th
Biggest Longshot: No More Flowers
Odds: 55.30
Finish: 15th
Winning Post: 3
# Posts: 17

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